Thursday, December 6, 2012

Eye on Iran: Iran Crude Exports to Hit Lowest Since Sanctions








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Reuters:
"Iran's crude exports are set to drop by about a quarter in December from the preceding month to the lowest level since tough sanctions were applied this year, shipping sources said, as the OPEC-member comes under pressure to curb its nuclear programme. Oil shipments by Iran have more than halved in 2012 due to U.S. and European sanctions on its oil trade, straining Tehran's finances, pressuring its currency and igniting inflation... While the exact reasons for December's sharp drop are not clear, sources in China said Iran may be struggling to find enough tankers to ship the crude as more and more are being used to store unsold oil. Most of the crude is scheduled to head to energy hungry Asian buyers -- China, India, Japan and South Korea -- with the drop in December shipments from November representing a loss of about $800 million (496 million pounds) for Iran at current oil prices. China, Iran's top trading partner, is expected to drive the cut by lifting its lowest volume of the year, said the sources, who declined to be identified because of policies on talking to the media. Iran's customers, including Turkey, the only non-Asian buyer, will lift 834,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude in December compared with 1.08 million bpd in November, an industry source with direct knowledge of Tehran's shipping plans said." http://t.uani.com/TUbDmE

Reuters: "Iranian oil tankers are sending incorrect satellite signals that confuse global tracking systems and appear to conceal voyages made by other ships to Syria, which, like Iran, is subject to international sanctions. The two countries are close allies and have helped each other deal with shortages by swapping badly needed fuels such as gasoline for diesel... Iranian state tanker company NITC has already changed many tanker names as part of its response to sanctions, though shipping experts say such a tactic would not confuse anyone in the business about a vessel's whereabouts. Now tanker tracking data monitored by Reuters and shipping specialists have highlighted a more subtle twist. Large vessels must transmit their identity and location to other ships and coastal authorities using an automatic satellite communication system, but in the last month Iranian vessels sailing in Asian seas have sent signals that took over the identity of other vessels, so the same ship appeared to be in two places at once. 'It is of course possible to manipulate or falsify information in these messages,' said Richard Hurley, a senior analyst at IHS Fairplay, a maritime intelligence publisher. At least three Iranian oil tankers are transmitting such false signals, effectively taking over the identity of Syrian-owned vessels travelling between Syria, Libya and Turkey. All the vessels in question were registered in Tanzania... Despite all the paired vessels appearing to be registered under Tanzanian flags, officials in mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar denied holding any information on the vessels. They have directed queries to a shipping agency in Dubai, Philtex Corporation, which they say registered some Iranian ships under the Tanzanian flag without their knowledge. Philtex confirmed it had registered the Syrian-owned Lady Rasha, but could not provide details on the Iranian tankers in question... 'We have no idea and we cannot justify why they are emitting the same satellite signals,' said Jocelyn Acosta, director of operations at registering agency Philtex Corporation. Acosta said Philtex cooperated with requests made by United States government agencies and others to identify a ship's owner and had deregistered a number of vessels accordingly." http://t.uani.com/Upy1oW

Reuters: "Western pressure that forced foreign ship classifiers out of Iran has increased safety risks including the danger of an Iranian vessel spilling oil on another country's coast, the chief executive of Lloyd's Register said. Last month, the China Classification Society became the last of the world's top companies in the field to confirm it had stopped verifying safety and environmental standards for Iranian vessels - a requirement for insurance and access to ports... The world's top 13 certifiers are all members of the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) and some of them had provided Iran with cover. The IACS classes more than 90 percent of the world's merchant fleet. There are more than 50 classification societies. Other IACS members, including Germany's Germanischer Lloyd and France's Bureau Veritas have left Iran in recent months after being targeted by U.S. pressure group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), whose board includes former U.S. ambassadors and former U.S. and British intelligence chiefs. UANI, which is funded by private donations, defended its campaign against certifiers. 'It is rather disingenuous to portray business with Iran as an exercise in public safety, given how many companies and individuals stand to profit from it,' a UANI spokesman said. 'Iran's shipments are illegitimate, and as such no legitimate business should be certifying them.'" http://t.uani.com/11KeEfz
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Bloomberg: "The drone Iran says it captured appears to be a U.S.-made ScanEagle, Pentagon spokesman George Little said, in a change from the initial U.S. rejection of the Iranian claim. While Iran said it extracted valuable data from the unmanned aerial vehicle, Little told reporters yesterday that it was 'highly improbable' that useful intelligence could be gained from the relatively unsophisticated drone. He said it couldn't be determined if it was operated by the U.S. The ScanEagle, made by Boeing Co., is used by a number of countries and is less advanced than other unmanned aircraft employed by the Pentagon and the Central Intelligence Agency, such as the Global Hawk and Predator." http://t.uani.com/WLCsdE

Sanctions

The Citizen (Tanzania): "Tanzania yesterday denied reports that it has registered 17 Iranian tankers that have been blacklisted, allowing them to remain in business. It has now invited other countries, including the United States, to conduct investigations aimed at pinning down the truth. Tanzania deregistered 36 Iranian tankers in July after it was established that the tankers were flying its national flag. In October, Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Bernard Membe said, his ministry responded to these allegations and clarified the position. But the ministry received a letter from the US embassy in Dar es Salaam renewing the accusation. The embassy claimed in the letter that Tanzania had registered another 17 Iranian tankers that had been deregistered in Pacific archipelago nation of Tuvalu.  Some members of the European Union have expressed concern over the same issue. 'It's very embarrassing when these claims come after we deregistered the Iranian tankers in July,' Mr Membe said. In November, he added, his ministry responded to the allegations and explained that it had not registered any Iranian ship. Tanzania has also asked the US and other development partners to provide details of a company known as Philtex, an agent based in Dubai, which has been registering Iranian ships on behalf of the Zanzibar Maritime Authority. 'After the truth has been established,' he said, 'we shall deal with whoever is involved in tarnishing the image of our country... we can even think of suspending the binding contract between the Tanzanian government, the revolutionary government of Zanzibar and the agent.'" http://t.uani.com/YEy5rq

Reuters: "The United States expects countries that buy oil from Iran to further reduce their purchases if they want to avoid U.S. sanctions, a State Department source said on Wednesday. 'The law requires additional cuts so we expect buyers to make additional cuts,' a source at the State Department said about the U.S. sanctions law signed a year ago by President Barack Obama. Under that law, banks in countries that buy oil from Iran can be cut off from the U.S. financial system unless the purchases are reduced. China, India, Japan and South Korea and other countries got six-month 'exceptions' to the sanctions in June for reducing oil shipments from Iran. The law says the cuts have to be 'significant' but does not dictate how deep they must be. The sanctions are designed to make it harder for Iran to fund its nuclear program, which Washington suspects is enriching uranium to levels that could be used in weapons, a charge Iran denies. The architects of the sanctions legislation, Democratic Senator Robert Menendez and Republican Senator Mark Kirk, have urged the White House to require countries to reduce purchases by about 18 percent before getting the next round of waivers." http://t.uani.com/XsPemx

Reuters: "Standard Chartered expects to pay $330 million to settle a case with U.S. regulators who accused the Asia-focused bank of failing to comply with sanctions against Iran, further denting profit growth this year. The settlement will be on top of the $340 million it paid to New York's Department of Financial Services in the third quarter, which pushed its before tax profit growth in 2012 to a mid-single-digit percentage from more than 10 percent, StanChart said in a statement on Thursday... Standard Chartered said it expected talks with U.S. Federal regulators to conclude shortly, confirming a Reuters report earlier in November." http://t.uani.com/11XQOwf

JTA: "A Republican and a Democrat in the U.S. House of Representatives are circulating a letter among their colleagues that would urge House negotiators  to preserve over Obama administration objections tough new Iran sanctions in a defense budget bill. The National Defense Authorization Act passed Tuesday by the U.S. Senate includes an amendment authored by Sens. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) and Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.) that would tighten sanctions on Iran's energy sector, targeting entities that circumvent existing banking sanctions by paying for Iranian oil in gold and other precious metals. 'The inclusion of these bipartisan provisions in the NDAA is a critical next step in our legislative effort to bring crippling economic pressure on the Iranian regime,' said the message circulating Wednesday from Reps. Robert Dold (R-Ill.) and Ted Deutch (D-Fla.) asking other House members to sign their letter to House negotiators set to attend conference talks reconciling the Senate and House versions of the National Defense Authorization Act... 'This letter strongly encourages House conferees to support and protect this language in conference committee negotiations, and to resist efforts to weaken or water down the provisions,' read the message from Dold and Deutch to their colleagues." http://t.uani.com/REcQ61

AP: "Four men have been charged with arranging shipments to China and Iran of weapons materials or a substance that can be used in uranium enrichment, officials announced Wednesday after indictments containing the charges were unsealed. Three of the men have been arrested while the fourth is in being sought to face charges described in court papers in U.S. District Court in Manhattan. Those charges include allegations that they broke embargo and export laws, with two of them accused of arranging to send a shipment of carbon fiber to Iran, where U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara said it 'most assuredly had the potential to end up in the wrong hands.' Authorities said carbon fiber can be used in gas centrifuges that enrich uranium and in military aircraft and strategic missiles." http://t.uani.com/YQCRkx

Opinion & Analysis

WSJ Editorial Board: "For years, U.S. officials have insisted that the Russian-built reactor at Bushehr posed a negligible proliferation risk. Instead, they concentrated nearly all their attention on Iran's efforts to enrich uranium. At the same time, the U.S. bought Iran's argument that the country was within its legal rights to operate 'peaceful' facilities such as Bushehr, never mind the question of why an oil-rich state would spend billions on a reactor it didn't need. Far be it for us to suggest the world should be less alarmed by the strides Iran has made in enriching uranium-close to eight tons to reactor-grade level of 5%, along with 238 kilos to a near-bomb grade level of 20%, according to a report last month by the International Atomic Energy Agency. With some additional enrichment, those quantities suffice for probably six bombs. But uranium is not the only route to a bomb. There's also plutonium, and Iran has long been at work on a plutonium-breeding heavy-water reactor in the city of Arak. The Iranians say the reactor is solely for research, yet IAEA inspectors have not been given access to the plant since August 2011. Then there's Bushehr. Under the terms of Iran's agreement with Russia's State Atomic Power Corporation, or Rusatom, Iran is supposed to return all of the reactor's spent fuel rods to Russia for storage. Now it transpires that Iran removed the fuel rods in October, a mere two months after the reactor became fully operational. Iran claims the fuel rods have since been returned to the reactor core, though we are not aware of any independent corroboration of that claim. The official reason for the transfer of the fuel was a safety test, and Rusatom has denied a report that the move was prompted by the discovery of loose bolts that could have caused a major accident. But as the Journal suggested in its story, the transfer could also have been a test run for the Iranians should they decide to reprocess those rods into weapons-grade plutonium. As many as 24 Nagasaki-type bombs could be produced with 220 pounds of plutonium. So much, then, for the notion that the Bushehr reactor is 'proliferation resistant,' an idea that largely boils down to the fact that IAEA inspectors are routinely at the site. Yet legally the IAEA is only permitted to inspect Bushehr once every 90 days, and Iran has forbidden the agency from installing video cameras with near-real time surveillance capacity. That means Iran could contrive an excuse to move the fuel rods without the agency knowing about it in time. And while Western intelligence agencies do not believe Iran has a reprocessing capability, experts tell us that the rapid extraction of weapons-usable plutonium from spent fuel rods is a straightforward process that can be performed in a fairly small (and easily secreted) space." http://t.uani.com/TGxy49

Benjamin Weinthal & Emanuele Ottolenghi in The Weekly Standard: "Germany appeared over the past several months to have finally fallen in line behind European Union efforts to stiffen economic sanctions against Iran. But in late October a group of German parliamentarians dealt a blow to the campaign to isolate Iran's rulers. Bundestag Members Bijan Djir-Sarai of the Free Democratic Party, Thomas Feist of the Christian Democrats and Angelika Graf of the Social Democratic Party traveled to Tehran for a five-day visit. mong other regime figures, the delegation met with Mohammad Javad Larijani, the head of Iran's human rights committee, who made a name for himself in Germany by denying the Holocaust, justifying the stoning of women, and calling for the destruction of Israel during a 2008 conference in Berlin. Predictably, the Iranian state-controlled media touted the German lawmakers' trip as a political and moral endorsement for the regime. Iran's Fars News wrote that Djir-Sarai was 'pleased' with his visit and hope that exchange programs with 'Iranian and German parliamentary officials and parliamentary friendship groups would work to bring the nations closer.' American officials have expressed irritation with the tour. 'At this particularly sensitive juncture in diplomatic relations, the international community needs to continue to send a clear, unified message to Tehran as we pressure the regime to come to the negotiating table,' Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire wrote in a press statement. 'A formal visit at this time-no matter how well-intentioned-is counterproductive and undermines our joint efforts to put an end to Iran's nuclear ambitions.' Djir-Saraj's meeting with the Chamber of Commerce symbolizes a larger problem. For years, Germany sought to strike a balance between its businesses' desire to expand their already robust trade relations with Iran, and its commitments as a member of the six-country team pursuing a deal to stop Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. A comprehensive statistical account of German Iranian trade published by Germany's federal office of statistics in Wiesbaden, covering the 1950-2012 period, shows a booming trade relation during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's presidency (2005 to present), resulting in over 25 Billion € of German exports to Iran. Clearly, Germany's declaratory policy is largely undermined by its business pursuits. In theory, sanctions are meant to exert increasing pressure on Iran's economy, persuading its rulers to change their stance on their nuclear pursuit. In reality, Germany's practice is evidence that Iran still gets German trade, including dual-use goods, equipment that has both a civilian and a military purpose. According to official German statistics, German exports to Iran in 2011 were worth over €3 billion. Of these, 579 deals approved by BAFA, Germany's export control agency, involved dual-use goods, for a total value of 65 million €. Between January and July 2012, Germany increased its exports of industrial machinery to Iran by 14.5 percent and of chemical products by 9.6 percent, over the same period a year earlier. With German exports accounting for nearly one third of the total European Union exports to Iran for 2011, this is hardly the kind of crippling sanctions touted by Western policy makers and decried by Iranian spokesmen. Germany's business community, largely in defiance of its government, stands behind this enduring trade relation. In 2011, the Tehran branch of the German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce published a members only booklet, which we have obtained, detailing the activities of dozens of German companies in Iran. In some cases, such trade is innocuous. There is no harm in selling Iran ceramic tiles or strings for musical instruments. However, many of the enterprises German companies are engaging are not innocuous. For instance, according to the pamphlet, the engineering giant Herrenknecht AG is selling Iran heavy tunneling equipment, some of which it claims has the capability of 'drilling down to depths of 6,000 meters.'" http://t.uani.com/TUhbNS

Ilan Berman in Forbes: "Over the past year, policymakers in Washington have woken up to a new threat to U.S. security. Since October of 2011, when law enforcement agencies foiled a plot by Iran's Revolutionary Guards to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in the nation's capital, U.S. officials have begun to pay attention in earnest to Iran's growing activities and influence in the Western Hemisphere. What they have found has been deeply worrisome. The Islamic Republic, it turns out, has made serious inroads into Latin America since the mid-2000s, beginning with its vibrant strategic partnership with the regime of Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez. Today, Iran enjoys warm diplomatic ties not only to Venezuela, but to similarly sympathetic governments in Bolivia and Ecuador as well. It has begun to exploit the region's strategic resource wealth to fuel its nuclear program. And it is building an operational presence in the region that poses a direct danger to U.S. security. Exactly how significant this threat is represents the subject of a new study released in late November by the U.S. House of Representatives Homeland Security Committee. That report, entitled A Line In The Sand, documents the sinister synergies that have been created in recent years between Iran and Hezbollah on the one hand, and radical regional regimes and actors-from Venezuela to Mexican drug cartels-on the other. Some of these contacts, the study notes, are financial in nature, as Iran seeks to leverage Latin America's permissive political and fiscal environments to skirt sanctions and continue to engage in international commerce amid tightening Western sanctions. But these contacts could easily become operational as well. The report suggests that 'the standoff with Iran over its nuclear program, and the uncertainty of whether Israel might attack Iran drawing the United States into a confrontation, only heightens concern that Iran or its agents would attempt to exploit the porous Southwest border for retaliation.' The U.S. response, meanwhile, is still nascent. To date, only one piece of Congressional legislation-the Countering Iran in the Western Hemisphere Act of 2012-has seriously taken up the issue of Iran's penetration of the Americas, and the potentially adverse implications for U.S. security. Fortunately, the Act has found a receptive ear among many in Congress, and is now likely to pass the Senate with only minor modifications during the current lame duck session of Congress. Yet, in and of itself, the Act does not constitute a comprehensive strategy for competing with Iran in the Americas-or for diluting its influence there. To the contrary, America's strategic profile in Latin America is now poised to constrict precipitously." http://t.uani.com/120fLHd

Omid Memarian & Roxana Saberi in The Daily Beast: "For 49 days, jailed Iranian human-rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh went on a life-threatening hunger strike. Her goal: to force Iranian authorities to stop harassing her family and remove a travel ban on her 12-year-old daughter. Drinking nothing but water mixed with sugar and salts, Sotoudeh's limbs grew weak. Her weight reportedly fell to under 100 pounds. On Tuesday, her hunger strike ended, in what human-rights activists called a major victory. The news came at a time when Iran has ramped up pressure on family members of dissidents and activists-both inside Iran's prisons and living in exile. 'I would like to congratulate Nasrin and all Iranian political prisoners and prisoners of conscience for this triumph,' said Shirin Ebadi, an Iranian attorney and Nobel Peace Prize winner, who has lived in exile in Europe since 2009. This year, several human-rights defenders reported arrests and interrogations of prisoners' family members in Iran, according to Ahmad Shaheed, the United Nations' special rapporteur on human rights in Iran. Some families have been 'threatened, insulted, and tortured,' to discourage them from publicly talking about the plights of their loved ones and to place pressure on the prisoners, according to Shaheed. Sotoudeh's husband told The Daily Beast that Iranian authorities warned him to stop speaking out for his wife, who was arrested in 2010. She is serving a six-year prison sentence and has been barred from practicing law for a decade. 'They once detained me for 24 hours and handed me to my wife's interrogators to pressure me to keep silent,' said Sotoudeh's husband, Reza Khandan, who is prohibited from leaving Iran. 'Another time, they detained me, our two children, and my wife's sister during a prison visit ... for five-and-a-half hours, without giving the children anything to eat.' Such tactics are becoming the norm in Iran, according to Ebadi and other activists. 'The Iranian government has been using different means to bring political and civil activists to their knees, like exploiting their feelings toward their family members,' said Ebadi. 'Activists' family members are now routinely put under pressure to force the activists into passivity.'" http://t.uani.com/TUiegS

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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